Friday, October 2, 2009

I cut all !!!

Oct seems to be a really bad month to just 3 days all recent gains last month was gave back. I have been telling play the range, don need to cut but at this point i feel its all different from the previous corrections.

Firstly, breakout supports for most small caps were broken. When support is broken, this is the time you have to take care. For me my trading time frame is not really long the most I can hold for 1 month or slightly more like i did for CH offshore..however when I was holding CH, the support was not broken then and maybe it was backed by good fundamentals. This time small caps that broke up retraces fast and breaking their first break up support and then towards their next support which was also mostly broken.

The selldown was broadbase, and Dow weakness yesterday brought forward big caps to also dip together. I just don`t feel good. My priority was to preserve the little profits I have and its a good time for me to rest and break away from the market, waiting for a better time to re-enter.

Although I have realised 10k of losses, I believe this is only temporary as I will be back when I re-enter my positions at a better time and price. The bottomline on why i sold was to preserve my capital and I cut at that point to prevent any further losses. Some cuts are not necessary but I do so to replan my strategy and trading methods. Totally away from the market can make me execute my plans better later..?

One sign to note was Monday, when STI was green we already saw a broadbase dip on small caps. We can use this infuture as a signal to alert us.

I could have earned much much more, but I am also glad that I did not lose all back to the market. It all a learning process. Learn from others and adapt into your trading style, learn from your mistakes and reflect to the key of success. Control your emotions, think of your risk management and do not overtrade. This are some of the things I would also think through during this break. Remember the market is always there.

The recent weakness in small caps indicates play is over? the major correction has started? Nobody knows.

Finish my rubbish? just a review on the STI monthly charts and please take note of the setup pattern at 50% fibo level. At this point the last candle is only 2 days old so things may not be as bad yet but please do watch it closely...anyway its just a point to note

Friday, September 4, 2009

Observations and points to note in current market

At this stage of the market, we can see how volatile and uncertain the movements are. If you are no experts in intraday or momentum trading, you can easily get hurt. I made several mistakes for the past two weeks. selling at the wrong time and not taking profits are the greatest error I would never should commit. Since market is so volatile and uncertain, maybe we could take advantage of such symptoms within the price ranges?

1. Prices are mostly playing within ranges, alot of breakouts also. However, there are alot of fake breaks which are completely unsustainable. When this happen, if you have little profits just cash out. As such counters like to pull back after failure to break up further and sustain in that few days.

2. Do not sell when counters are in ramping mode. usually when there are no movements after the ramp for like 15-30 mins..the prices will retreat. I sold Long cheer when it was in ramping mode and when it pulled back..seconds later it moves 6 ticks up. - -Zzzz..

3. Don let emotions get out of control, we usually get pissed off with ourselves for bad stupid mistakes and like to start entering new positions in a hasty manner. Thats how I entered Baker Tech before it got sold down and had to end up cutting and losing 600 bucks for nothing today.

4.Do not chase prices, don`t be antice into counters in a ramping mode and chase after it ran a few ticks up. If the counter is strong, it will be good and you are lucky but that is usually so rare. If its faked, you will be holding unwanted babies - -..and will be forced to cut.

5. If you are sure of the momentum of your position especailly those breakout counters in a resting mode, try to hold abit even you lost a few ticks. As when market is volatile, and if prices are still hovering within the price range, there is high chance that they will fill back the gap or will continue its momentum after the 2-3 days rest. So if you do not need to lose the few ticks down, holding for a while is good to cover back your hole. But please cut if that support range is breached.

6. At this point in time where market are downtrending or a high possibility of reversal further from the peak. Its still better not to hold stocks for too long. Intraday play may be good but without proper tools and discipline we would end up losing more than winning. So please do trade with care and choose the right counters which suits your trading style.

Monday was a red day bringing back the last day of August to close at a black candle. Looking at the monthly charts, We see a start of downtrending, STI resisting at a 50% fibo level. That don looks good. Weekly are still downtrending despite small caps are still greatly at play mostly momentum brought by this week by Genting and Sinotel (3Gs counters). Textile counters stirred abit this week which should be good to take note. The possibility of market sliding further is still highly possible, a reversal this month may also occur no one knows. But usually at this 50% level of fibo, STI likes to hover here for most likey STI should still be within range and accumulation mode for at least 1 - 3 months. After that whether it broke down or up one knows.

No point to anticipate. Just ride with the market whipsaw slides.

Friday, August 21, 2009

STI OUTLOOK - Fibo retracement observations

I was meddling with fibo retracements on STI charts and discovered something very interesting..Everyone is expecting Sept to be bad..Is it that bad? This observation is purely based on the previous bottom and recovery. Towards a longer term view.

Taking the 0% at bottom and 100% from previous will notice...

1. Months when STI approaching 38.2% line will hold there considering it as a major resistance..before moving on in all 3 occassions.
2. Except for the 1st time, the other 2 times, STI hold back slightly at the 50% line..which was what is happening to this month

After that seems like a smooth road to 100% STI so we are looking at 3XXX again by next year considering the steeper gradient we have now..

Fascinating fibo retracement indicator...but please note this is solely based on historical and my observation for you guys to ponder. How long we will hold at this 50% line may be 1 -3 months...

Currently, STI is already downtrending.
daily - uptrending from today
weekly - downtrending since 3 weeks ago
Monthly- shows peak in July...

Although things may look bearish in the short term, We still have last week of August to monitor if STI will be able to do a reversal in the weekly charts and a continuation of uptrend in the monthly...2700 is the key to note and have to be close above in monthly inorder for sti to continue moving upwards.

A retracement from this resistance is equally possible.

For charts: pls visit

Sunday, July 19, 2009


When there is a post here meant that I have lost recently again. This was a bad mistake on my part when I shorted Kepcorp at 6.84 based mainly on trendlines and previous lows and highs. I forgotten to checked it with other indicators and my waves that Kepcorp was actually uptrending on its daily charts. So far things don`t look too good with first reversal shown on weekly charts.

However, Kepcorp had not broken previous high and may be constrained by its upper, resisting at 7.14 at the moment. I made all the wrong exits last week regardless of taking profits, cutting losses or making entry signals.

I have concluded a few points of using CFD and how risky shorting is.1. When shorting, if it was a wrong entry, cut loss at the first retracement of lower low made especially in volatile times.
Eg. Friday morning, Kepcorp made low at 6.90 which was a perfect timing to cut loss then, when afternoon failed to create a lower low or touching that point, there are directions that afternoon prices will improve which it did. A higher low was created and it went up..

2. When shorting, do not hold shorts too long, try to take profits near the first major support. I once shorted kepcorp to 6.4X but failed to took profits thinking that it will go lower. 6.4X was at the same level of the previous low.

3. Try not to short large caps like I did for Kepcorp, hurting to our margin and also will affect our decision. I was blinded by greed and shorted max for kepcorp. Now at current emotion state, its hard to make a sound decision. Imagine market goes stronger, every 10 cents would be 1k loss, especially for high priced shares like Kepcorp. Greed still kills. This can be a bottomless pit.

STI went out of its upeer on Friday. In most occassions, Monday should be a black candle retracing back to the bands and if that the case, early weeks may have some correction downwards.

Last April was different whereby STI continues to breakup before correcting ..This was an one off case after studying the few previous times of candles outside Upper B.bands. (They usually retraces back.)

Secondly, looking at the differences between the higher lows and previous lows made.. it seems that the gap is getting smaller, coupled with decreasing volume,

STI may be close to a top and next week would be crucial to determine whether STI will edge higher. 2 conditions.

a. STI have to close higher this week than last week. (last weekly reversal would be confirmed by this)

b. Monday candles should still gap up and breaking out of upper B.bands. <----

Maybe I am seeing what I want to see, bearish but if you look back further STI seems to be losing steam despite breaking new high. All the good news came out so nicely to support the overall world market. Next week, we should have more or less a clearer view what will happen. My observations may be an one -off situation and may not apply to all times.

Friday, July 3, 2009

Further observations of using OP theory and timing of entries in current range trading

So far seems that OP theory still works well as one of the criteria to determine of price movements in current volatile market.

Today , I took a risky step and shorted A.reits which was strong and way trading above OP based on the following:-
1. As prices are strong it moved quickly up and broke 1.70 and reached a day high of 1.74. This point of shorting would be perfect as high probability that a.reits prices could have touched a highest point in a day. I did not catch it at 1.74 but was abit too fast and shorted it at 1.70.
The weak market may have prevented losses for me on this counter.

2. A.reits to be at 1.74 would be breaking up way above the upper at past prices I never seen a big white candle hanging above its upper band, so shorting beyond 1.7 should be quite safe

Observation together with OP theory on STI.

1. When STI is weak and going red, and you see those counters trading above OP, they are usually very resilient

2. When STI is still green or strong and trading higher than opening and counters still trading below OP like capland this morning..<---this is a perfect choice for shorting.

If STI had been strong, this counter will not lead much and if STI become very weak this will be one of them to lead the fall.

Again all the above are only part of the techniques that I used recently to time my entries and also my decision to hold or cover. I have covered A.reits as it was too strong for me to bring overnight.

Though Kepcorp shows strength in the morning and it was at judgement point. I did not cover as based on the daily charts, weekly charts its downtrending and I should not be covering at high point. The most important point is that it was unable to break previous high today despite the strength in the morning. What I am trying to highlight here is that the above OP theory is only a micro-filter on how we should act, we must still base on our main analysis. it can be a good gauge to assist us on our decision in entries or cut loss point.

Tuesday, June 30, 2009

KepCorp Charts

Few points to note on Kep corp.Plot 5, 10, 20d EMA and see the crossover of 5d and 10d downwards of 20d EMA...signifies downtrend started.

In such senarios, prices will be hard to break resistance.Daily trend is upwards but should max out by today or tomorrow. 5d EMA moves up cutting 10d EMA signifies a buy but 20d EMA now acts as a resistance and with weekly charts downtrending..I see this as a trap...

The channel drawn is strong resistance coupled with lower highs and lower lows if today close lower than yesterdays close..reversal of kepcorp should have started.there are always 2 sides to everything..but in this case to me ..70% it should close lower below 7 dollarss this week..

Today large black candle acts more bearish look to Kepcorp.Based on the EMAs meeting close any further weakness in Kepcorp confirms it will downtrend and very high % that it cannot break further resistances.We are still at pivot point where tides may turn especially the 5d EMA moving up and cutting 10d EMA shows a buy signal. but based on my kk waves with today daily chart + weekly chart downtrending. 80% its price will go further down. And also with the 20 EMA still at the top of the 3 lines..downtrend is still in place.

Charts can be found here Donno why cannot post.

Friday, June 26, 2009

The strong reversal before dive...

Kepland was strong on 25/06. big white candle up like 12 cents with large volumes. I seen this senario 3rd time. twice in Kepland and once in SPH. Prices have been falling or trading in tight ranges and suddenly reversal formed which looks strong. After that day, price will still be trading at that range for another 1-2 days before it goes back to dormant stage...after that it will go down trend.

This is just an observation. Kepland and Capitaland made many happy on 25/06. Today, weakness showed in this counters instead of showing another white candle which was evident in the previous reversals instead we see a small black candle. or a star. Its for us to judge next week.

Synear I nearly bought today at open at 24 cents. No strength there too today. but its uptrending, nice weekly and daily charts and reversal supported by 2 days of white candles. Is this another trap. This is the period where TA don work as well due to the volatility. Prices and volumes do tell us more in such circumstances. One point to note.

1. Try not to buy immediately at open especially when buying up is so strong pushing the counter 1 -2 ticks higher before 10...They usually will fall back to the Opening price for us to catch up or it could dive down...This allows us more time to plan our entries better.

2. Stocks before rallying in S-chips usually will pull back 1-2 ticks down before flying..usually if its weak in day 1 pulling back to new low followed by a reversal fast in the 2nd day. Chances of it rallying is quite high. Of course still must based on TA abit on this S-chip before using this condition.

Opening Price Theory and Trading Timings

HAd been a while after those losses..Studied a real bit on price movements intraday and spotted a few pointers we can rely on.

1. Try not to trade between 0900 - 0930. Study if prices holds above OP after 0930 and sustainable till 1015 - 1030. If below OP..weakness on stock. If price holds well above OP throughout the day. Most likely it will lead..

2. Try not to buy between 1130 - 1230.

With that, I reverse abit of previous loss on Kepland. Shorted it at 2.35 and covered at 2.21 followed by long at 2.26 which was bad timing but I did not hastily cut loss this time but I held on seeing another upwave..luckily for me it did realised and I escaped at 2.29.

With the OP theory, sensed weakness in stocks. CapitalLand was trading below OP today and executed a quick short at 3.80, to see the price break down. Covered at 3.75. I should have held on but worried of the window dressing effect.

Coupled with timing in entries, monitoring of price movements and opening price on day when you need to execute a trade. + TA of the charts the day before. It could make our trades more timely.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Crashing in July...?

Stopped trading for a while and holding on to losing positions of Achiva and Transcu.
This time the sideway tradings looks similar to Feb before the big crash in March this year. Previously, Prices are shown uptrending daily and weekly charts are downtrending..Today marks a temporary wave up which may be the 2nd wave before the big wave down. In such cases where we see alot of reversal signals today at daily charts, prices should break down next week with more sideways trading. When such senario take place, TA would start to defies and market should start to crash down. Should I cut my long positions or should I hold on to them?

I am now looking for a few signs on a few counters:-

a. Down waves at reversal for Sembmarine and Keppel Land.
b. If prices are still higher than their previous high, uptrends continue.
c. If prices are still volatile and sideways but unable to break previous high, signs of a big correction is near.
d. Short at the next break of support.

Trading mistakes for review...

Made the same mistakes again on intraday trading. This is the last time I got to tell myself not to be so hasty into trades.
Mistakes commited.
1. Shorted Kepland at Day Low - 2.41
2. Covered at 2.40 and price went down further.
3. Looking at Kepland candles..there should be a day correction up. Long Kepland at 2.37.
4. Price drop further and I panic cut loss at 2.31. Eventually closes at 2.34 and went up to 2.60 today.

I lost to emotions and greed in earning a fast buck. My initial entries were correct but I made mistakes in timing. Anyway Intraday gambling like this are out of my style.
Luckily I lost on what I previously earned. I should have held on to my sembmarine where I covered with little profits and see the price fell to day low of 2.81 again. All these mistakes I have highlighted in the past 2 posts cost me much and is a good lesson learn to prevent myself from indulging in such gambles again.

What should have been done?

1. When highlighted that prices will go down further hold your shorts until support price is reaching and cover. Look for shorts at the next breakdown of support. ( I did not sell when support price was reached)

2. Never sell at Day low to cut loss and short at day lows. Price movement always moves up in one direction and will retrace or correct slightly after much price movements.

3. When the candles are getting shorter and shorter, we can see that the downward momentum is reducing and this can be supported by the lower volumes. Cover shorts at day close if possible.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Reflection on Asc Reits Lost

Gave back 1/2 of my profits on Asc reits..Note the following,

1. Targetted prices will go down, setting cut loss too low should be 2 ticks higher from resistance.

2. Time strategy, buy / sell and hold. Still not cut out for intradays.

3. If charts goes my way, should hold it for a while to see movements. Steady minds.

Still fine tuning on my shorting skills. Asc reits looks like retracing but could go higher with weekly charts bullish. Cover on Friday. Shorted again today at 1.57

Holding Long on Achieva and Transcu. Paper Loss too much as long as both can be exited with minimum profits I will be able to keep my profits so far.

Holding Shorts for Sembmarine, looks like its falling is ending. Property counters like Capland, Keppel Land are also weakening. Could have shorted but got limited margins.

Strategy for June. Hold Long positions to positive territory and cover shor positions within 2 - 3 days. Shorting should be the key at this moment. Overall target met this month but I do not want to consider dividends as my gains. Pennys which lagged behind could still be in play.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Pennys move...

TOday bought achieva at 12.5 cents...for the 4 cents dividends...hoping it will be like Rickmers for a quick buck. Prices moves to 13 -13.5 cents range..
Bio-Treat moves up 1 cent too. Ascendas Reit doji star spotted, will sell at gap up tomorrow morning, though charts shows a break up of major resistance. I guess its safer to just contra it off and concentrate at others.

China Taisan looks good, 12.5 cents base and break up in volume. Bullish divergence spotted in weekly charts, may be a multi-bagger if patient.

Transcu closes up at 24 cents. 23 cents still supporting..hope its the move of a new uptrend for this one.

Market still bullish, happy point seemed to have reached whereby people are reluctant to sell, even I am not willing to selll too fast....Plan to load off in due time and monitor situation further.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Bearish divergence noted !!

Scanning through a few stocks like yongnam, csc, china ess, celest, sinostar. All shows a bearish divergence in Price Osc. Used sinostar as an example to show u guys the divergence. Not sure when it will fall.

Today wanted to cfd short synear based on last few price patterns. Limit exceeded - -..I only wanted to short 50 - 100 lots but failed.

Covered celest at 16 cents. Selling momentum has eased and glad that it covered my capland loss earlier.

Entered Ascendas Reit at 1.35, weekly charts shows bullish divergence and I can see waves that price may be recovering..even if not in it will recover back to 1.60 levels soon..

Still holding on to Bio-T and Transcu. Missed buying Cacola at 6.5 cents. Guess I have to be more patient.

Midnight update. STI past 2300!!!

I was right. Twice I felt and see the same price movements and eventually they breakup. Capland and SEmbmar. Cutting Capland was correct, thanks to bros and sis at rmao. However, I should have believed my instinct and long Capland at 3.4X after i cover the shorts.

Still holding on to celest shorts. I think its time to cover tomorrow..I still believe its good to earn, and better collect profits and concentrate on others. As I type..Dow is almost 3 digit red. My long positions on Bio-treat and transcu don look too good though...This is one mistake I make...never follow others call...I never made anything out of it. I decide myself, I follow my analysis, I follow my kkwaves I am always right....

I may be over cautious but its good to earn bit by bit than to expose myself too much to risks. Tomorrow morning...cover celestial at gap down if any...

I will still hold Transcu and Bio-treat..accumulating for a while liao...if really can give me 100% returns...that will be far I have missed many 100% returns on stocks that I never hold.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Review of May Trades

Got dividends and small profits from Rickmers early May. Still did not learn my lesson not to go against bullish sentiments of market. Should have held on tighter on Rickmers after dividends.
Shorted Capitaland in camp, bad moves with no charts analysis, followed to buy high on Transcu..another bad timing. I cut 3k loss today on Capitaland, should have done so yesterday and shorted celestial at 0.26. I was too stubborn and held on to CapLand, resulted in same loss and failed to cover back losses.
Celestial and Capland both discovered a bearish divergence in PO. But celestial was more evident. shorted it at 20.5 cents in hope to cover my capland shorts. So far if celestial do not get refinancing on bonds, my short should be safe and we should be looking at Target price of around 10 cents.
Long on Bio-treat and Transcu for long term, will decide to let go as market sentiments are weakening.

STI past 2000 made me lose confidence on my views on outlook, I am sort of lost for this week. seing weekly charts downtrending..I believe downtrending should take place now. Will exit my longs when possible at this stage.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Market Direction in May...Bottom finding starts in Late May/ June

Since I will be away for the next 3 weeks. Studying various counters, Now is at a stage whereby Daily charts are recovering but weekly charts downtrending. Next week may see STI going higher but in due time...Market will start trading sideways as Weekly waves supercede daily waves.

This senario is just like Early Feb.

Middle of May prices will be trading at tight ranges and when daily waves turn downtrending in 2 - 3 weeks time. We should see prices testing supports and downtrending..

And we may be soon be finding a new bottom in June.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Rickmers Update 2

Shows trend weakness today...still no cause of alarm..may be consolidating at 35 cents...tomorrow if breakdown less than 35 cents..then I am worried..Decision day tomorrow..Will be away for next month...I may just cut all positions and maintain 100% cash..Hard to react when cannot monitor.

Will surely dive after XD...may not worth it to hold for div....

Monday, April 27, 2009

Rickers Update

Should have waited for price to settle down at opening..rushed in to buy at major resistance level of 0.365. Anyway, I failed to see prices brought down by bad market sentiments and Swine flu. Market starts getting cautious.

Read some negative news on it today. I guess though the payout is attractive we have to note that this is abit of high risk holding this one for too long. My trend wave indicator did not show a downtrend despite the black candle ..but a slight edge up in reading. I may still be in the game.

Will hold and monitor tomorrow's price movement, If weak, I may cut loss at rebound. I guess holding this one till 11 May for XD may be an alternative


No buy calls for long time. Using Andrew PitchFork, from several points of high and lows, Intersections at 36.5 cents shows that if broken could fly. Support well established at 32 cents.Good dividends, good earnings for quarter. I think this one got more upside.

Tp may go up to 49 cents. Short term maybe 41 cents.I am going to buy at open on Monday..hope don`t gap up too high thenMay not be right please set stop loss and analyse yourself to confirm. ..HUat

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Wed Bits

Last night have been trying to convince myself to hold celest, which I failed. I punt for myself to sell at gap up. Luckily I ran for small profits as I see S-chips dying sentiments may drag celest down. Guessing from charts..Weekly still looks good for Celest. Will wait for good entry point like 14.5 - 15 cents to enter again for one last try. Still staying sidelines with 100% cash. I don`t think I will hold and will let go whatever opportunity this round.

Until my waves signals are clear. I am not trading

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tues BIts

Rested a few days..and bought celestial at close today at 0.175. Though daily charts showing not much upside, but I do like the consolidation and resilience today closing up with a small white candle. The next bet would be the uptrending weekly charts which should not have peaked just this week.

This has always been a jinx counter for me. This time we will see how powerful weekly charts are to supercede daily charts readings. If a reversal is witnessed on celestial tomorrow, we should be looking beyonf 20 cents again for this one by Friday.

Generally, STI is downtrending..S-chips and most pennys are losing strength. Win or lose on celestial, would decide for me whether I should continue making intraday punts.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

No more Bits

I sold off SPH at day's high 2.91 cutting 1.3k of losses. Back to 100% cash. have slightly underestimated this rally but I have to reflect on a few selling mistakes.

1. At beginning of rally, hold and ride the trend. Pennys showing recovery confirms the rally and indicate good entry points for blue chips or mid caps.

2. Analyse STI direction, take note when market shows weakness, danger point usually at 3rd retracement.

3. Early signs of breakout in prices during early upmovements usually shows some accumulation mode at certain range of price..this breakup is confirm with weekly charts showing uptrending.

Rotational play was good but selling wrong timing cost me earning at least 20k less. One could ride this trend all the way until some leading counters retracement take place...usually we still have 1 day to react and sell.

Will not post Bits here now. But I may post some buy calls when time comes...Still waiting patiently..

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Thurs Bits

No action and sidelines on Wed. I paid up Eratat and Essence seems like they are waiting for a chance to break out, extremely bullish signal for rally to continue to next week. If thats the case STI should peak next week before retracing further to downtrend momentum.
Strategy for next week would be to clear my S-chips. I let go majority of my celestial for small kopi money leaving the 12 lots at loss, target to buy back celest at 10 - 10.5 cents next week.

Had to sell off celestial as punted and holded sports over the weekend. Essence and Eratat looks like breaking out and China sports seemed to break resistance to continue further upwards. Lets hope I am right. Target to clear all S-chips positions before punting anymore and hope SPH can chiong through for me to cut at minimum loss.

As essence pattern last 2 weeks confirmed a breakout. Eratat seemed to be following the same pattern, we shall confirm next week. With STI peaking out next week we should have another week of good run from Schips. Waves of prices are abit unclear now signifying reversal anytime.
Weekly charts still shows S-chips gonna have another week of good run.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Tues Bits

Was busy today..STI retraces 2.X% should have happened long ago. This should be normal as unusual for market to rally more than 3 weeks. Stayed sidelines and still waiting to clear the S-chips. I just got a feeling Essencce and Eratat should break out and I cannot possibly sell when STI is red. Decided to hold it and sell it at a good time. Not intending to buy more until other counters finish their retracements and start uptrending again.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Mon Bits

STI as mentioned last week tested 1850 again. My objective to clear my long positions proceeded smoothly exiting UOL and SAR. Expectedly prices rise after I cleared my positions for small profit. I was wrong not to hold my previous long positions since expecting 1850 STI since the start of rally 3 weeks ago. Point to note is that its good to ride the trend than to get in and out of various trades. But in a bear market rally, Its really hard not to run with profits.

I bought China Erata for quick punt, expecting it to breakout tomorrow and hope it does. Objective to clear celestial and China Essence by tomorrow to reduce risk positions and get back 100% cash as planned. S-chips did chiong for a while, I guess we may see some actions from them this few days.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Fri Bits

STI has touched 1800 this week. General outlook next week should still see STI testing 1850. Anyway not a good time to enter. Prices are mostly too high as I sold too early. Market chances are abundant, I don`t think i want to ride all the way to the peak and then wait for fall back. Still in my S-chips celestial and Essence. Waiting to exit SPH, UOL and SAR still as nothing to buy so I held on.

Hopefully, I will escape while I can from S-chips...holding them too long makes me feel uncomfortable. In any case, I will want 100% cash by next week.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Thurs Bits

Today Essence gap up to 12 cents!!..Heart Pain but I have to look forward..Breaking 11 cents is a good reversal signal, based on charts 20 cents should not be a problem next week. Most S-chips reversed slightly higher, tomorrow will be confirmation if the carry on with their up move. Initially, daily charts shows most downtrending, today trend was reversed to be in sync with weekly trends. New discovery: Weekly charts will lead changes to daily charts and supercede its reading..hmm..I will continue to monitor.

Today made a mistake rushing into RaffEdu when its already 40 cents. Although based on charts I should be safe but not worth the risk of my capital with the small returns for the day. Luckily I was able to sell it off for small profit covering yesterday brokerage loss. I still need to control my hasty entries this week.

Re-entered Essence at 12 cents, since reversal is clear, reached 14 cents today. I guess this should rally abit. Tp = 0.16 - 0.18

First time i see STI +100 exceeding, looks like 1800 was tested and next week should be going to 185X..I still don`t think STI will break 1900 and I am still expecting one more bear leg down.
Seems like next week is either reversal week in the middle of week or uptrend may still continue.

I guess next Mon and Tues should still go up as today rally has changed trends on daily charts to upwards. Can only confirm next week if we are going down.

Hope I can exit celestial, UOL tomorrow. Maybe I may sell SAR too. I will ride SPH to the max of this upmove..till the end. before I decide how much to cut loss.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Wed Bits

Luckily ChinaEssence recovered back to 11 cents for me to clear my mistake. Indeed a good reversal signal but I guess I better hold on and monitor further. I may re-enter at 9 cents though..Lost brokerage fees but definitely better than losing 1.5k.

Celestial still going downtrend, seems like S-chips don look too good this week..maybe will not chiong until next week after today charts.

Still holding on and watching. Will wait for good time next week to enter Synear and Banyan.

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tues Bits

Not much action on celestial. I bought China Essence and there it goes bad week keep falling..I thought my analysis defies me again. Then I realise I misread the weekly charts which shows a down trend instead of uptrending. Which means prices could fall further..hopefully not too low though as daily charts still shows uptrending cycle. Lost and entered 3 cents higher because of that. If I do not cut faster I may hold this baby for long..

Guess Its a bad week now, Hold and exit strategically with full cash before trading more is my calll now. Current portfolio seems too risky.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Mon Bits

I punted in Chartered again but this time I lost. Should not have gambled, guess should have learn my lesson and should not have been so greedy. All the winnings again made me lost control. As expected celestial are in a downtrend, but if my indicators do not fail me we may see some actions from S-share by end of the week. I guess I am highly at risk if I carry on holding this for too long.

Sold Banyan at 40 cents and most likely to pick it up again at retracement mid band. Please do not gamble in shares. Not worth it, its like playing Big and small. Guess I will just hold on with what I have and hope that we can see Celestial going to 14 cents by end of the week..if not the weekly charts uptrend on S-shares will not materialise.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Fri Bits

Today STI indeed gap up but quickly weaken for retracement...I guess market sentiments are expecting this retracement to be ugly but I guess we should have a few days of hanging up there before we move down.

Intended to sell Banyan at 41 cents but I did it too late and buy back at retracement later next week. Guess I have to hold it till Monday,,should retrace after hitting 40 cents..expect down from Mon if Dow is red today.

I held on to celestial again hoping for a U turn, though still downtrending..I hope good news of it will come fast, then really we can just sit back and watch it fly.

I lost control and punt on Chartered missing the whole morning move..I regretted after I bought but guess my lucky streak still holding on. I sold of 1 cents higher within an hour..with a profit of 940 bucks. Please don gamble like that again please.

Since my ICT, I have picked Swiber, Banyan, Sinotech..have good profits from these picks guess I have finetuned my entries.

Celestial was a gamble and exited sembmar too early now that its 1.90+. I magine me shouting everyday before I sold that it looks like breaking out..and I still sold to be safe..guess I have to time my exits better.

Good week...good profits. I shall cool off for a while and sit on what I have now..

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Thurs Bits

Unexpectedly, STI surged another day. Moving up so sharply seems like marking a bottoming process I read somewhere...After a fast advance, price will find a new bottom and we shall be entering the bull market..hmm...would this happen? I always believe whatever comes up fast will dive faster. SO my take still to play safe.

Banyan looks good for more upside..I may hold it beyond 40 cents.
Wanted to sell for celestial but withdrew my sell Queue, I am going to gamble that they are getting re-financing soon. If I am wrong when news is out, I guess I try to cut loss then. Hope this one will not fail me for third time.
Sold Suntec, still proceeding to exit past long positions covering previous losses and earning a small profits at 65 cents..Intended to sell at 62 cents but looking at a break up I let it run abit longer..PLaying safe still my take now, I will continue to exit the next few positions and cut loss at SPH at a good price. UOL climb back to my 1.89 buy price too. I think this week should be a lucky week for me.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Banyan Trees Chart

Vested @ 32 cents.

From new low, fiercely rebounding back which deviates abit from its movement in past. Resistance to clear 0.35-0.355 for 2nd break up to 40 cents.

Coupled with current strong market uptrend and bullish sentiments. I think this one got potential to drive up higher.

Wed Bits

My analysis on STI last week was quite accurate except that 1700-1750 was reached in one single wave. I got a feeling this retracement may be quite bad but with current bullish market sentiments, it may not be as bad as i thought at 1500. But I did accurately expect this retracement today exactly 2 weeks of rally.

Today, scan through Banyan Tree in a rush and decisively bought it at 32 cents. I should have entered on Tuesday as I was studying it on Mon night. Anyway, got some kopi money there..TP = 40 cents. This one just recovered from new low and really lagged missing the first week rally just like SAR and Suntec which I am still holding on. Target to exit by Friday.

Seems like my punt on Celestial pull through, support at 0.11 - 0.115 was still good. Although failed to reached 0.13..seems like 0.14-0.15 should be within reach soon. Target exit by Thurs or Fri. Do not wish to hold this for too long. Hopefully tomorrow this one will go up to its top price resistance or at least half of it..

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Tues Bits

Today again green...STI gained like 100 points in just 2 days...Is the worst over? I was surprised this rally continued towards my target of 1700 - 1750 without any retracements to date. But expected Wednesday to be the retracement, so lets see if I am that spot on. Seems like bad exit for Swiber and Kepland, could have earned much more if I had hold it till today. But I have to be safe than sorry.

1700 - 1750 to exit considered my safe zone. This rally should not move beyond 1945 and this wave should not exceed 1800.

Today even though rallied, I find it rather uneasy. I see people shorting weak Blue chips in view that main resistance is touched. Seems like a safer bet if we see STI starts retracing. Anyway I controlled my urge to try naked short but I lost to the attraction of celestial again. I have to admit the fact its a gamble despite the recent bad news, I still bought.

Reasons: 0.11 price seem to be in consolidation mode.
Bad news should have been factored in the price.
Auditor's view is looking at the extreme level or situation.

Lets hope for the best. Based on charts Celestial may still have abit on upside.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Mon Bits

ooh..never expected rally to be so strong today. As planned, I got the chance to exit my Kepland with small profits. Since its a mistake, I am glad I did not lose.

Sembmarine really broke out..16 cents more than the amount i sold...However if I did not sell I would not buy Swiber or Sinofibretech, as it would be against my rules.

I also exited Swiber at 0.36 and Sinotechfibre at 0.10...really a tough day as I was pondering whether to sell sino lower..I have made good profits this round. Nearly wanted to punt on Mercator today but I withdrawn. Good I controlled my urge.

Now the next target to clear would be Suntech Reits which I believe we may see some actions tomorrow.

Now that my overall profit / loss turned green. I may plan to cut loss on my capital in this stupid counter is not maximising at all. Tomorrow may still rally, my take was Wednesday the starting of retracement...and 1500 could be possible. Anyway, I exited half my positions and sitting back to monitor the index movements.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Sinotech Fibre Charts

I did not want to gamble on S-shares again. But had 1 thinking that changed my mind.
Previous analysis wrong was because market was downtrending..

This test on S-share is STI rebounding.
2 very attractive points here..prices were even and i got 2 trend indicators going uptrend...thats where I see a possibility of it going up..

Price hovering at support consolidating towards Mid B.bands and looking at previous situations and cycles of will touch the upper band soon. TP= 0.105.
Looks like this one never fail me today.. Anyway i Kiasi...gonna exit by Monday too..

Swiber Chart

Before I used any of my indicators, confirm main STI index is in rebound and uptrend.
My favourite trend indicator shows an uptrend and prices went up usually at the 4th -5th day when MACD went above 0.
Prices even with indicators trending up - bullish divergence.
After Following fall along lower B.bands...prices rebound to touch top B.bands in 3 occassions.
I was hesistant this time cos there were some consolidation rather than immediate rebound..

TP. = 37 cents..hope can sell on Monday ..

Fri Bits

What a good week! Guess I was right that my indicators start working during uptrend of market. I was right to be bullish about market..A start to have some market direction is indeed useful in timing my trades. Now they are working again.

Market was boring till afternoon. All so low volume, despite many seeing STI red, I was still optimistic. Swiber suppose to go up today and at least it never failed me. First test has passed, timing was accurate. Will post some indicators on Swiber.

One bro in forum recommended Sinotechfib, as usual urged by the greed of my mind, I ran through it on a system check and find it indeed a good buy. Considering my indicators working as proven in Swiber..I punt 100 lots with TP at 0.105 on Monday to exit. Hope this can cover me abit. Will post chart to support my decision on the buy.

Generally my other long positions went up, my take and hope is that next Mon and Tues will not retrace so I can exit nicely....Definitely must clear as much as possible by Monday to be safe. I expect STI to fall Mon afternoon but laggards stocks like Swiber, Sunny and some S-shares will be at their high B.bands before retracing with others on Tues or Wed.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Thurs Bits

This morning changed my mind on Swiber, scan through a few counters but no clear buy signal for me to long. Swiber usually rebound fast but I see consolidation towards Mid thats why I was hesistant. Anyway, I bought 10 lots to test if my TA is starting to work again with main trend up. Entered at a good price of 30 cents, if tomorrow Swiber chiong guess my touch is back.

Good call selling Sembmar yesterday, partly because it hit the top and rebounded downwards and also dragged by rumours on Sembcorp. Sembcorp is my next target, will be monitoring it tomorrow. Suntec did rebound back, hope to sell at TP 65 cents.

I am still bullish at least till next week. If STI 1600 is tested either tomorrow or Next Mon, I guess by middle of next week we should start to see a retracement to test 1500 level again before the next wave up.

Still steady see if I can have some good entries on contra to earn back what I have lost and exit nicely before the next index downtrend.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Wed Bits

Finally sold off sembmar at 1.54. Better get back some cash to feel safer.

Reason for the sell: saw dojistar but with white candle today i guess sembmar may breakup more..

Tomorrow is entry time for Swiber..hope my charts are right already with main index uptrending. Suntec seems to be pushing up at end of most likely is the reversal point..hope I am able to exit with minimum profits by next week.

Good day, I realised some profits...will carry on to exit my long positions before this rebound ends. Hopefully, maintaining my overall P/L to green again.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Tues Bits

Wanted to sell off sembmarine at 1.53 today but holding back as I feel it breaking out..If I never remember wrongly it has tested the resistance 3 times this week. Sembmarine should consolidate sideways around 1.48 - 1.52 before breaking out next week

Wanted to buy Swiber at 0.30 but I stopped myself as I see a better entry point on Thurs based on cycles. Anyway If I do not clear my previous long positions, I should not buy anymore.

Today STI took a turn downwards at the end. Tomorrow may also be the same..after that one wave cycle should complete..another mini rally should proceed above 1600.

Since current long positions are already mistakes, exit with minimum losses. Still steady, a fallback today should be normal after so much upward movements. I still see this as an upmarket movement.

Current target for STI to clear long positions 1680.

STI movements

I drew the support line of STI hitting 147X and I still bought with little hope…really stupid of me..

Today broke 1580, next resistance at 1660 for it to uptrend towards 1700..

In such markets, I don think this rebound will go up to 1800 as the percentage retracement seems too high…we should be looking at lower lows and lower highs hence this rebound should not be more than the previous 194X….I am slowly exiting my long as it goes. and wait for a few months for the next bottom to vest again. I agree with your STI crash which I think it may be within 3-4 months.

1. Economy should recover by early 2010, if that’s the case, market should bottom about 6 months before that
2. Most dividends are paid out after May
3. Reports of financial results will get worse for 09 performances
4. there should be 1 or 2 more bear legs before bottom looking at current trendlines.

If you notice the previous rebound, price rebound to mid and move sideways for 1 to 1.5 weeks before moving up before moving towards the upper B.bands, retrace back to mid and then moving up once again before downtrending…seems like a mini 3 wave of higher highs within previous rebound before downtrending…using this as a guide…I think if STI can touch 1700 – 1750…I will start closing my long positions.

Looking at the previous 2 lows and the peak…seems like the upwave and the downwave took equal time (triangle with 2 equal sides).

Mon Bits

Looking at charts generally, trends seems to be clearer now. Hope that this STI rebound can sustain for a few weeks. Still holding my positions, and have noted few resistance hoping to exit my long positions. ICT for 2 weeks helped to keep me away from the market...I was faithfully waiting for my rebound although it came 2 weeks later...Bad entry timing...

Still keeping calm, nearly bought Swiber today...but though I could have waited until tomorrow.
TP for Sembmarine, 1.52 resistance...if can break more upside on the way...
Aiming to exit Kepland at 1.40
Suntec at 0.65
UOL at 2.0X

Most of other counters are in red but improving...I see most counters trending upwards. Learn 3 things.

1. Study direction of Main Index
2. TA do not represent well in downtrending of main index.
3. Should not have bought on hope even after seeing possibility of STI trending down to 147X

Friday, February 27, 2009


I stopped myself from buying China HX...sorry the upside is still good. My entry was 0.10 to 0.105 to minimise risks as market was not looking as good as it should be.
Buying HX will be like taking a gamble in short term which i got to stop myself..I am not an intraday trader. I can hold stocks and I have actually exceeded my limits of buying thats why I should stop. Good decision there.

I vest in SARS using CPF so I am not too bothered. Based on charts, upside if STI rebounds.
I vest in Suntec reits picking back from previous cut loss to maintain my trading pattern. I may have bad losses this week but buying back Sembmar and Suntec lower save me the same amount I have cut during Feb. Good move there.

I will update Suntec and SARS charts this weekend. I will be away for 2 weeks. If STI rebound, next month shall be my big time.

Even though there are losses, there are also some winnings early this month to cover back abit. Still green not earning much but alot of valuable lessons learnt.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

China HX Chart

China HX broke support at 0.18 and shown 1st Reversal today. This is my bet for tomorrow.

1. Volume decreases on falling prices
2. RSI below 30, Prices falls below Lower B.bands shows downside limited.
3. MACD shows start of uptrend cycle.
4. Separating Lines formation

Separating lines occurred. If the lines occur during an uptrend and the first line is black and the second is white (which is the case with CHINA HONGXING SPORTS LIMITED) then this suggests that the uptrend should continue.

As long as negative news on S-shares have subsided. I think this should be a good bet.


I held my ground well until the end of the session..watching those S-shares surging arouse my gambling sentiments..I actually bought 12 lots of Celesatial again @0.195 after selling what I held for 0.17 yesterday..Stupid me...Hope I am right this time.

I shouted I wanted to buy 100 lots of HX after its so badly battered. I am mad..I calmed down and I think it would be wiser to analyse them properly first before any moves..1 cent move will be profit or loss of 1K. I can hold but would they be another trap....

Wednesday, February 25, 2009


I wanted to cut celestial since Monday, and I did it only end of my contra due..Great I loss additional 1K. WHy is it so bad these 2 weeks? I am making all the bad decisions. Guess I should be more trusting to the bad signs and be decisive. Another good lesson learned.

Market did rebound and I will do up Sembmarine and KeppelLand Charts to decide my next move. Though I lost, I felt relieved. With so many bad news in S-shares on fake reporting and accounts, no point risking the balance of my capital on Celestial. Cutting is the best move.

UOL got dividends, Sembmarine rose. Things are improving and I shall slowly restructure my portfolio. This is the biggest cut to date. I cut loss of estimated 2.5k already this month on 3 counters.

This month I learn alot and discovered alot.
1. Money and Risk Management is very important
2. Cut Loss when share defies your TA. Perfecting the right time to cut losses take time.
3. Intraday trades are not for me. Good shares can be held and constantly reviewed to identify specific bearish signal of breakdown so as to cut.
4. Never cut when the market is down.
5. Current Indicators seem insufficient. Additional Indicators need to be studied to justify my decisions. Look at indicators which would have stopped me from buying celestial, suntec and UOL at that entry price.
6. Look at weekly and monthly charts to determine trend of the share.
7. Look at Index to determine trend as not to long positions in opposition of trend.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009


Don feel like saying more...I am still holding...I can hold why panic...i am a much longer term investor than doing intraday right,,holding for months is still considered mid term,,,No point for me to exit now anyway. I cannot exit at the bottom of this bear leg, its stupid.

I vest into Sembmarine anyway...then it started falling..I went to work..Steady is the key. Now the bet is whether I am right that a reaction is coming.

Ups and downs are so frequent in times like this. A fall today does not mean a fall next week. Staying cool is the key to making sound decisions. Rallies will come.

No more bullets....I will stay and watch...

Monday, February 23, 2009

STI today rebounded alot...seems like alot of bargain hunters but no XXs action. Everything turns out too well take another Tuesday morning of green depending on DOW tonight.

Seems like XXs are casting a very big net..I guess I should take a step back and exit late morning tomorrow. A rebound is expected but one that rally so fast will drop fast too..I maintain STI a 2 step up and 1 step down.. I guess i should stand by my take of reaction reaching 1680. It may go higher but definitely not this week if this rebound sustain.

Trade with care. Steady minds Steady decisions.

Mon Bits

Today as expected open red and rally up for STI. I maintain a clear mind and be steady with aim to cut losses during this rebound. A lot of counters with Engulfing Bull pattern. Looks like a secondary reaction is in place. I would still cross my fingers and maintain a close look.

Last week indeed being jittery hindered perceptions and have made alot of bad decisions. Did not buy Sembcorp today but bought Kepland @1.34. I have to admit i am abit swayed by cheers of bros in forum, in view of increasing interest of the counter with uotrending from today. I think its a good bet.

There is an increase in volumes in my counters UOL and Celestial.. I guess that may justify that my TA is working on them.Target to cut loss SPH @ 2.8 and hold celestial and UOL to reap small profits.

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Check this out...This extract shows some justifications why shorting is harmless from Harry D Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies
(1) If there was anything unethical, immoral, illegal, or un-American about it, the Securities and Exchange Commission wouldn’t allow it.
(2) The country cannot benefit from having all its investing citizens lose money. Therefore, if some are able to make money in a declining market, this is all to the good. A free society needs solvent citizens, inorder to remain free. One might also say it’s a patriotic duty to stay solvent. And, if short selling does that in a bear market, it can hardly be evil. You can’t help your family, country, or self if you lose your money.
(3) Stock prices are merely people’s opinions of their value. And, since stocks once sold by the company are no longer the property of the company, the shorting of those shares is not shorting the companybut rather shorting the opinion of the company as held by other investors or traders. Microsoft doesn’t get your money if you buy its shares, neither does it lose money if you sell its shares short and they drop in price and you make a profit thereby. You merely won a bet with a fellow investor. He thought they would go up. You thought not. You won. I’ll have more to say in defense of short selling in Chapter 13. It has been misunderstood for decades.
(4) The short seller contributes mightily to the creation of more orderly and stabilized security markets through the demand for and the supply ofsecurities he creates. In bull markets and bear, he is selling short, and heis eventually ‘‘covering’’ (i.e., buying), which demand puts a cushion under market declines. Without the short seller, our markets would be bottomless—those times when panic prevails and bulls rush for the exits while the short seller is calmly buying stock to cover his shorts andtaking a profit. "

Friday, February 20, 2009


Today was a busy day and a Red Day in STI..
I realised I had a bad week. My TA suddenly defies me. Whatever I buy falls.

At one point I decided that I need to closed all positions win or loss and restructure my analysis. Since I will still have some Kopi Money, it may be good to do that and study why all these happened this week.

I realised....those stocks that defies my TA are of low volume and not actively traded..
1. Suntecreit
2. UOL
3. Celestial

This weekend I gonna do abit of readings on such stocks and understand the mean time no more penny stocks for me..Sembcorp is the next target...

I think i am starting to get impatient..I want to capture as many counters and do not want to miss a trade..

My recent trades are more of intradays compared to previous trades where I am more willing to hold for a few days or even weeks. I have changed because my previous 2 big wins were contras. I became impatient. Those days of steady winnings are losing. I have to get back from this and be more zai zai......and be more clear headed.

Coming Monday...I will cut Celestial..this is too risky to hold....
UOL and SPH can be kept in the storage to sell or cut loss at a better day...before this 2 are sold..I guess I will just trade minimumly with what I have left....

Good lesson learnt this week

Thursday, February 19, 2009


Holding Capitalmall @1.32 -
Holding UOL @1.89 -
Holding SPH @ Avg 3.11
Holding STE @ 2.20

UOL since small play intend to hold.
SPH can rot and keep

Friday, need to plan for next move to free abit of capital to standby for Sembcorp next week.


by kkworks on February 17th, 2009, 2:14 am

I see an increase interest in STE as weakness showing in its price recently..

Although RSI at about 35 with today's price cutting below the lower bands...showing very minimum downwards movement possibility...

I find more bearish signals...
1. 5,10, 20 EMA lines intersecting at almost same point...very bearish..
2. 3 black candles. with daily increasing volume
3. MACD trend still going downwards...

although STE can bounce off quite fast...safer to buy when indicator starts trending up...I would look a it for 1 to 2 more days before deciding to buy...if tomorrow breaks support..i think may free fall to 2.0X?

by kkworks on February 18th, 2009, 10:18 pm

STE update
1.I vested in this today at 2.20..could have entered yesterday at 2.0X but overlooked 2 things due to having a bad day and busy cutting losses...

On 17 Feb - Price already cutting below lower B.bands and RSI moving towards 30 - strongly indicates that price may not go lower

Decided to buy on 18 Feb afternoon, but STE gap up alot in morning and I don`t like chasing prices.

Clear indication of uptrend movements thus the decision to vest in it.Market would rush to buy for dividends - that is done by the group buying up today.

Results out .. clearer skies ahead..people feel more secure to vest.

Market improving from Tuesday..may induce larger buying crowds in.

The long term investment mentality for STE may see this trend up until XD,,,

I will ride this upttrend I was hoping it will reach 2.40at least..

Not inducing to buy...


RSI Vs Bollinger Bands Part 1

RSI Vs Bollinger Bands Part 2

Other Indicators

I did a brief study on Sembcorp since its once again at new low. am also tempted to buy.My usual indicators are unclear of Sembcorp directions.MACD shows a trending up but I am not sure as Sembcorp is flying like a headless fly since End clear trend at the moment.

Testing lows 4th time which is very risky.

Not clear if I see it correctly but i take the 4 low points since Oct 08 as a start point.

RSI still at 40 though Lower band breached. Entering a tight channel.Since my usual indicators isn`t clear..I used RSI in relation to B.bands and highlighted a few senarios in the past when Sembcorp enters a tight channel and when RSI is still more than 40 even when touching the lower band.

Findings are that price will still dive despite touching the lower band until RSI reaches 30 where price will then rebound to mid band.Alot of uncertainty at this moment, not discouraging bros to buy but to me downside probability more than upside, I will still hold and watch...Next support at 1.97 based on previous low..