Friday, February 27, 2009

FRI BITS

I stopped myself from buying China HX...sorry the upside is still good. My entry was 0.10 to 0.105 to minimise risks as market was not looking as good as it should be.
Buying HX will be like taking a gamble in short term which i got to stop myself..I am not an intraday trader. I can hold stocks and I have actually exceeded my limits of buying thats why I should stop. Good decision there.

I vest in SARS using CPF so I am not too bothered. Based on charts, upside if STI rebounds.
I vest in Suntec reits picking back from previous cut loss to maintain my trading pattern. I may have bad losses this week but buying back Sembmar and Suntec lower save me the same amount I have cut during Feb. Good move there.

I will update Suntec and SARS charts this weekend. I will be away for 2 weeks. If STI rebound, next month shall be my big time.

Even though there are losses, there are also some winnings early this month to cover back abit. Still green not earning much but alot of valuable lessons learnt.

Thursday, February 26, 2009

China HX Chart

China HX broke support at 0.18 and shown 1st Reversal today. This is my bet for tomorrow.

1. Volume decreases on falling prices
2. RSI below 30, Prices falls below Lower B.bands shows downside limited.
3. MACD shows start of uptrend cycle.
4. Separating Lines formation

Separating lines occurred. If the lines occur during an uptrend and the first line is black and the second is white (which is the case with CHINA HONGXING SPORTS LIMITED) then this suggests that the uptrend should continue.

As long as negative news on S-shares have subsided. I think this should be a good bet.

THURS BITS

I held my ground well until the end of the session..watching those S-shares surging arouse my gambling sentiments..I actually bought 12 lots of Celesatial again @0.195 after selling what I held for 0.17 yesterday..Stupid me...Hope I am right this time.

I shouted I wanted to buy 100 lots of HX after its so badly battered. I am mad..I calmed down and I think it would be wiser to analyse them properly first before any moves..1 cent move will be profit or loss of 1K. I can hold but would they be another trap....

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

WED BITS

I wanted to cut celestial since Monday, and I did it only end of my contra due..Great I loss additional 1K. WHy is it so bad these 2 weeks? I am making all the bad decisions. Guess I should be more trusting to the bad signs and be decisive. Another good lesson learned.

Market did rebound and I will do up Sembmarine and KeppelLand Charts to decide my next move. Though I lost, I felt relieved. With so many bad news in S-shares on fake reporting and accounts, no point risking the balance of my capital on Celestial. Cutting is the best move.

UOL got dividends, Sembmarine rose. Things are improving and I shall slowly restructure my portfolio. This is the biggest cut to date. I cut loss of estimated 2.5k already this month on 3 counters.

This month I learn alot and discovered alot.
1. Money and Risk Management is very important
2. Cut Loss when share defies your TA. Perfecting the right time to cut losses take time.
3. Intraday trades are not for me. Good shares can be held and constantly reviewed to identify specific bearish signal of breakdown so as to cut.
4. Never cut when the market is down.
5. Current Indicators seem insufficient. Additional Indicators need to be studied to justify my decisions. Look at indicators which would have stopped me from buying celestial, suntec and UOL at that entry price.
6. Look at weekly and monthly charts to determine trend of the share.
7. Look at Index to determine trend as not to long positions in opposition of trend.

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

TUES BITS

Don feel like saying more...I am still holding...I can hold why panic...i am a much longer term investor than doing intraday right,,holding for months is still considered mid term,,,No point for me to exit now anyway. I cannot exit at the bottom of this bear leg, its stupid.

I vest into Sembmarine anyway...then it started falling..I went to work..Steady is the key. Now the bet is whether I am right that a reaction is coming.

Ups and downs are so frequent in times like this. A fall today does not mean a fall next week. Staying cool is the key to making sound decisions. Rallies will come.

No more bullets....I will stay and watch...

Monday, February 23, 2009

STI today rebounded alot...seems like alot of bargain hunters but no XXs action. Everything turns out too well today...my take another Tuesday morning of green depending on DOW tonight.

Seems like XXs are casting a very big net..I guess I should take a step back and exit late morning tomorrow. A rebound is expected but one that rally so fast will drop fast too..I maintain STI a 2 step up and 1 step down.. I guess i should stand by my take of reaction reaching 1680. It may go higher but definitely not this week if this rebound sustain.

Trade with care. Steady minds Steady decisions.

Mon Bits

Today as expected open red and rally up for STI. I maintain a clear mind and be steady with aim to cut losses during this rebound. A lot of counters with Engulfing Bull pattern. Looks like a secondary reaction is in place. I would still cross my fingers and maintain a close look.

Last week indeed being jittery hindered perceptions and have made alot of bad decisions. Did not buy Sembcorp today but bought Kepland @1.34. I have to admit i am abit swayed by cheers of bros in forum, in view of increasing interest of the counter with uotrending from today. I think its a good bet.

There is an increase in volumes in my counters UOL and Celestial.. I guess that may justify that my TA is working on them.Target to cut loss SPH @ 2.8 and hold celestial and UOL to reap small profits.

Saturday, February 21, 2009


Check this out...This extract shows some justifications why shorting is harmless from Harry D Schultz - Bear Market Investing Strategies
"
(1) If there was anything unethical, immoral, illegal, or un-American about it, the Securities and Exchange Commission wouldn’t allow it.
(2) The country cannot benefit from having all its investing citizens lose money. Therefore, if some are able to make money in a declining market, this is all to the good. A free society needs solvent citizens, inorder to remain free. One might also say it’s a patriotic duty to stay solvent. And, if short selling does that in a bear market, it can hardly be evil. You can’t help your family, country, or self if you lose your money.
(3) Stock prices are merely people’s opinions of their value. And, since stocks once sold by the company are no longer the property of the company, the shorting of those shares is not shorting the companybut rather shorting the opinion of the company as held by other investors or traders. Microsoft doesn’t get your money if you buy its shares, neither does it lose money if you sell its shares short and they drop in price and you make a profit thereby. You merely won a bet with a fellow investor. He thought they would go up. You thought not. You won. I’ll have more to say in defense of short selling in Chapter 13. It has been misunderstood for decades.
(4) The short seller contributes mightily to the creation of more orderly and stabilized security markets through the demand for and the supply ofsecurities he creates. In bull markets and bear, he is selling short, and heis eventually ‘‘covering’’ (i.e., buying), which demand puts a cushion under market declines. Without the short seller, our markets would be bottomless—those times when panic prevails and bulls rush for the exits while the short seller is calmly buying stock to cover his shorts andtaking a profit. "

Friday, February 20, 2009

FRI BITS

Today was a busy day and a Red Day in STI..
I realised I had a bad week. My TA suddenly defies me. Whatever I buy falls.

At one point I decided that I need to closed all positions win or loss and restructure my analysis. Since I will still have some Kopi Money, it may be good to do that and study why all these happened this week.

I realised....those stocks that defies my TA are of low volume and not actively traded..
1. Suntecreit
2. UOL
3. Celestial

This weekend I gonna do abit of readings on such stocks and understand better....at the mean time no more penny stocks for me..Sembcorp is the next target...

I think i am starting to get impatient..I want to capture as many counters and do not want to miss a trade..

My recent trades are more of intradays compared to previous trades where I am more willing to hold for a few days or even weeks. I have changed because my previous 2 big wins were contras. I became impatient. Those days of steady winnings are losing. I have to get back from this and be more zai zai......and be more clear headed.

Coming Monday...I will cut Celestial..this is too risky to hold....
UOL and SPH can be kept in the storage to sell or cut loss at a better day...before this 2 are sold..I guess I will just trade minimumly with what I have left....

Good lesson learnt this week

Thursday, February 19, 2009

THURS BITS...

Holding Capitalmall @1.32 -
Holding UOL @1.89 -
Holding SPH @ Avg 3.11
Holding STE @ 2.20

UOL since small play intend to hold.
SPH can rot and keep

Friday, need to plan for next move to free abit of capital to standby for Sembcorp next week.

STE

by kkworks on February 17th, 2009, 2:14 am

I see an increase interest in STE as weakness showing in its price recently..

Although RSI at about 35 with today's price cutting below the lower bands...showing very minimum downwards movement possibility...

I find more bearish signals...
1. 5,10, 20 EMA lines intersecting at almost same point...very bearish..
2. 3 black candles. with daily increasing volume
3. MACD trend still going downwards...

although STE can bounce off quite fast...safer to buy when indicator starts trending up...I would look a it for 1 to 2 more days before deciding to buy...if tomorrow breaks support..i think may free fall to 2.0X?

by kkworks on February 18th, 2009, 10:18 pm

STE update
1.I vested in this today at 2.20..could have entered yesterday at 2.0X but overlooked 2 things due to having a bad day and busy cutting losses...

On 17 Feb - Price already cutting below lower B.bands and RSI moving towards 30 - strongly indicates that price may not go lower

Decided to buy on 18 Feb afternoon, but STE gap up alot in morning and I don`t like chasing prices.

Clear indication of uptrend movements thus the decision to vest in it.Market would rush to buy for dividends - that is done by the group buying up today.

Results out .. clearer skies ahead..people feel more secure to vest.

Market improving from Tuesday..may induce larger buying crowds in.

The long term investment mentality for STE may see this trend up until XD,,,

I will ride this upttrend I was hoping it will reach 2.40at least..

Not inducing to buy...

SEMBCORP







RSI Vs Bollinger Bands Part 1






RSI Vs Bollinger Bands Part 2





Other Indicators


I did a brief study on Sembcorp since its once again at new low. am also tempted to buy.My usual indicators are unclear of Sembcorp directions.MACD shows a trending up but I am not sure as Sembcorp is flying like a headless fly since End Jan..no clear trend at the moment.

Testing lows 4th time which is very risky.

Not clear if I see it correctly but i take the 4 low points since Oct 08 as a start point.

RSI still at 40 though Lower band breached. Entering a tight channel.Since my usual indicators isn`t clear..I used RSI in relation to B.bands and highlighted a few senarios in the past when Sembcorp enters a tight channel and when RSI is still more than 40 even when touching the lower band.

Findings are that price will still dive despite touching the lower band until RSI reaches 30 where price will then rebound to mid band.Alot of uncertainty at this moment, not discouraging bros to buy but to me downside probability more than upside, I will still hold and watch...Next support at 1.97 based on previous low..