Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Tues Bits

Not much action on celestial. I bought China Essence and there it goes bad week keep falling..I thought my analysis defies me again. Then I realise I misread the weekly charts which shows a down trend instead of uptrending. Which means prices could fall further..hopefully not too low though as daily charts still shows uptrending cycle. Lost and entered 3 cents higher because of that. If I do not cut faster I may hold this baby for long..

Guess Its a bad week now, Hold and exit strategically with full cash before trading more is my calll now. Current portfolio seems too risky.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Mon Bits

I punted in Chartered again but this time I lost. Should not have gambled, guess should have learn my lesson and should not have been so greedy. All the winnings again made me lost control. As expected celestial are in a downtrend, but if my indicators do not fail me we may see some actions from S-share by end of the week. I guess I am highly at risk if I carry on holding this for too long.

Sold Banyan at 40 cents and most likely to pick it up again at retracement mid band. Please do not gamble in shares. Not worth it, its like playing Big and small. Guess I will just hold on with what I have and hope that we can see Celestial going to 14 cents by end of the week..if not the weekly charts uptrend on S-shares will not materialise.

Friday, March 27, 2009

Fri Bits

Today STI indeed gap up but quickly weaken for retracement...I guess market sentiments are expecting this retracement to be ugly but I guess we should have a few days of hanging up there before we move down.

Intended to sell Banyan at 41 cents but I did it too late and buy back at retracement later next week. Guess I have to hold it till Monday,,should retrace after hitting 40 cents..expect down from Mon if Dow is red today.

I held on to celestial again hoping for a U turn, though still downtrending..I hope good news of it will come fast, then really we can just sit back and watch it fly.

I lost control and punt on Chartered missing the whole morning move..I regretted after I bought but guess my lucky streak still holding on. I sold of 1 cents higher within an hour..with a profit of 940 bucks. Please don gamble like that again please.

Since my ICT, I have picked Swiber, Banyan, Sinotech..have good profits from these picks guess I have finetuned my entries.

Celestial was a gamble and exited sembmar too early now that its 1.90+. I magine me shouting everyday before I sold that it looks like breaking out..and I still sold to be safe..guess I have to time my exits better.

Good week...good profits. I shall cool off for a while and sit on what I have now..

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Thurs Bits

Unexpectedly, STI surged another day. Moving up so sharply seems like marking a bottoming process I read somewhere...After a fast advance, price will find a new bottom and we shall be entering the bull market..hmm...would this happen? I always believe whatever comes up fast will dive faster. SO my take still to play safe.

Banyan looks good for more upside..I may hold it beyond 40 cents.
Wanted to sell for celestial but withdrew my sell Queue, I am going to gamble that they are getting re-financing soon. If I am wrong when news is out, I guess I try to cut loss then. Hope this one will not fail me for third time.
Sold Suntec, still proceeding to exit past long positions covering previous losses and earning a small profits at 65 cents..Intended to sell at 62 cents but looking at a break up I let it run abit longer..PLaying safe still my take now, I will continue to exit the next few positions and cut loss at SPH at a good price. UOL climb back to my 1.89 buy price too. I think this week should be a lucky week for me.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Banyan Trees Chart

Vested @ 32 cents.

From new low, fiercely rebounding back which deviates abit from its movement in past. Resistance to clear 0.35-0.355 for 2nd break up to 40 cents.

Coupled with current strong market uptrend and bullish sentiments. I think this one got potential to drive up higher.

Wed Bits

My analysis on STI last week was quite accurate except that 1700-1750 was reached in one single wave. I got a feeling this retracement may be quite bad but with current bullish market sentiments, it may not be as bad as i thought at 1500. But I did accurately expect this retracement today exactly 2 weeks of rally.

Today, scan through Banyan Tree in a rush and decisively bought it at 32 cents. I should have entered on Tuesday as I was studying it on Mon night. Anyway, got some kopi money there..TP = 40 cents. This one just recovered from new low and really lagged missing the first week rally just like SAR and Suntec which I am still holding on. Target to exit by Friday.

Seems like my punt on Celestial pull through, support at 0.11 - 0.115 was still good. Although failed to reached 0.13..seems like 0.14-0.15 should be within reach soon. Target exit by Thurs or Fri. Do not wish to hold this for too long. Hopefully tomorrow this one will go up to its top B.band price resistance or at least half of it..

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

Tues Bits

Today again green...STI gained like 100 points in just 2 days...Is the worst over? I was surprised this rally continued towards my target of 1700 - 1750 without any retracements to date. But expected Wednesday to be the retracement, so lets see if I am that spot on. Seems like bad exit for Swiber and Kepland, could have earned much more if I had hold it till today. But I have to be safe than sorry.

1700 - 1750 to exit considered my safe zone. This rally should not move beyond 1945 and this wave should not exceed 1800.

Today even though rallied, I find it rather uneasy. I see people shorting weak Blue chips in view that main resistance is touched. Seems like a safer bet if we see STI starts retracing. Anyway I controlled my urge to try naked short but I lost to the attraction of celestial again. I have to admit the fact its a gamble despite the recent bad news, I still bought.

Reasons: 0.11 price seem to be in consolidation mode.
Bad news should have been factored in the price.
Auditor's view is looking at the extreme level or situation.

Lets hope for the best. Based on charts Celestial may still have abit on upside.

Monday, March 23, 2009

Mon Bits

ooh..never expected rally to be so strong today. As planned, I got the chance to exit my Kepland with small profits. Since its a mistake, I am glad I did not lose.

Sembmarine really broke out..16 cents more than the amount i sold...However if I did not sell I would not buy Swiber or Sinofibretech, as it would be against my rules.

I also exited Swiber at 0.36 and Sinotechfibre at 0.10...really a tough day as I was pondering whether to sell sino lower..I have made good profits this round. Nearly wanted to punt on Mercator today but I withdrawn. Good I controlled my urge.

Now the next target to clear would be Suntech Reits which I believe we may see some actions tomorrow.

Now that my overall profit / loss turned green. I may plan to cut loss on SPH..as my capital in this stupid counter is not maximising at all. Tomorrow may still rally, my take was Wednesday the starting of retracement...and 1500 could be possible. Anyway, I exited half my positions and sitting back to monitor the index movements.

Friday, March 20, 2009

Sinotech Fibre Charts

I did not want to gamble on S-shares again. But had 1 thinking that changed my mind.
Previous analysis wrong was because market was downtrending..

This test on S-share is STI rebounding.
2 very attractive points here..prices were even and i got 2 trend indicators going uptrend...thats where I see a possibility of it going up..

Price hovering at support consolidating towards Mid B.bands and looking at previous situations and cycles of prices..it will touch the upper band soon. TP= 0.105.
Looks like this one never fail me today.. Anyway i Kiasi...gonna exit by Monday too..

Swiber Chart

Before I used any of my indicators, confirm main STI index is in rebound and uptrend.
My favourite trend indicator shows an uptrend and prices went up usually at the 4th -5th day when MACD went above 0.
Prices even with indicators trending up - bullish divergence.
After Following fall along lower B.bands...prices rebound to touch top B.bands in 3 occassions.
I was hesistant this time cos there were some consolidation rather than immediate rebound..

TP. = 37 cents..hope can sell on Monday ..

Fri Bits

What a good week! Guess I was right that my indicators start working during uptrend of market. I was right to be bullish about market..A start to have some market direction is indeed useful in timing my trades. Now they are working again.

Market was boring till afternoon. All so low volume, despite many seeing STI red, I was still optimistic. Swiber suppose to go up today and at least it never failed me. First test has passed, timing was accurate. Will post some indicators on Swiber.

One bro in forum recommended Sinotechfib, as usual urged by the greed of my mind, I ran through it on a system check and find it indeed a good buy. Considering my indicators working as proven in Swiber..I punt 100 lots with TP at 0.105 on Monday to exit. Hope this can cover me abit. Will post chart to support my decision on the buy.

Generally my other long positions went up, my take and hope is that next Mon and Tues will not retrace so I can exit nicely....Definitely must clear as much as possible by Monday to be safe. I expect STI to fall Mon afternoon but laggards stocks like Swiber, Sunny and some S-shares will be at their high B.bands before retracing with others on Tues or Wed.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Thurs Bits

This morning changed my mind on Swiber, scan through a few counters but no clear buy signal for me to long. Swiber usually rebound fast but I see consolidation towards Mid B.band thats why I was hesistant. Anyway, I bought 10 lots to test if my TA is starting to work again with main trend up. Entered at a good price of 30 cents, if tomorrow Swiber chiong guess my touch is back.

Good call selling Sembmar yesterday, partly because it hit the top B.band and rebounded downwards and also dragged by rumours on Sembcorp. Sembcorp is my next target, will be monitoring it tomorrow. Suntec did rebound back, hope to sell at TP 65 cents.

I am still bullish at least till next week. If STI 1600 is tested either tomorrow or Next Mon, I guess by middle of next week we should start to see a retracement to test 1500 level again before the next wave up.

Still steady see if I can have some good entries on contra to earn back what I have lost and exit nicely before the next index downtrend.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Wed Bits

Finally sold off sembmar at 1.54. Better get back some cash to feel safer.

Reason for the sell: saw dojistar but with white candle today i guess sembmar may breakup more..

Tomorrow is entry time for Swiber..hope my charts are right already with main index uptrending. Suntec seems to be pushing up at end of day..today most likely is the reversal point..hope I am able to exit with minimum profits by next week.

Good day, I realised some profits...will carry on to exit my long positions before this rebound ends. Hopefully, maintaining my overall P/L to green again.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Tues Bits

Wanted to sell off sembmarine at 1.53 today but holding back as I feel it breaking out..If I never remember wrongly it has tested the resistance 3 times this week. Sembmarine should consolidate sideways around 1.48 - 1.52 before breaking out next week

Wanted to buy Swiber at 0.30 but I stopped myself as I see a better entry point on Thurs based on cycles. Anyway If I do not clear my previous long positions, I should not buy anymore.

Today STI took a turn downwards at the end. Tomorrow may also be the same..after that one wave cycle should complete..another mini rally should proceed above 1600.

Since current long positions are already mistakes, exit with minimum losses. Still steady, a fallback today should be normal after so much upward movements. I still see this as an upmarket movement.

Current target for STI to clear long positions 1680.

STI movements

I drew the support line of STI hitting 147X and I still bought with little hope…really stupid of me..

Today broke 1580, next resistance at 1660 for it to uptrend towards 1700..

In such markets, I don think this rebound will go up to 1800 as the percentage retracement seems too high…we should be looking at lower lows and lower highs hence this rebound should not be more than the previous 194X….I am slowly exiting my long as it goes. and wait for a few months for the next bottom to vest again. I agree with your STI crash which I think it may be within 3-4 months.

1. Economy should recover by early 2010, if that’s the case, market should bottom about 6 months before that
2. Most dividends are paid out after May
3. Reports of financial results will get worse for 09 performances
4. there should be 1 or 2 more bear legs before bottom looking at current trendlines.

If you notice the previous rebound, price rebound to mid B.band and move sideways for 1 to 1.5 weeks before moving up before moving towards the upper B.bands, retrace back to mid B.band and then moving up once again before downtrending…seems like a mini 3 wave of higher highs within previous rebound before downtrending…using this as a guide…I think if STI can touch 1700 – 1750…I will start closing my long positions.

Looking at the previous 2 lows and the peak…seems like the upwave and the downwave took equal time (triangle with 2 equal sides).

Mon Bits

Looking at charts generally, trends seems to be clearer now. Hope that this STI rebound can sustain for a few weeks. Still holding my positions, and have noted few resistance hoping to exit my long positions. ICT for 2 weeks helped to keep me away from the market...I was faithfully waiting for my rebound although it came 2 weeks later...Bad entry timing...

Still keeping calm, nearly bought Swiber today...but though I could have waited until tomorrow.
TP for Sembmarine, 1.52 resistance...if can break more upside on the way...
Aiming to exit Kepland at 1.40
Suntec at 0.65
UOL at 2.0X

Most of other counters are in red but improving...I see most counters trending upwards. Learn 3 things.

1. Study direction of Main Index
2. TA do not represent well in downtrending of main index.
3. Should not have bought on hope even after seeing possibility of STI trending down to 147X