Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Market Direction in May...Bottom finding starts in Late May/ June

Since I will be away for the next 3 weeks. Studying various counters, Now is at a stage whereby Daily charts are recovering but weekly charts downtrending. Next week may see STI going higher but in due time...Market will start trading sideways as Weekly waves supercede daily waves.

This senario is just like Early Feb.

Middle of May prices will be trading at tight ranges and when daily waves turn downtrending in 2 - 3 weeks time. We should see prices testing supports and downtrending..

And we may be soon be finding a new bottom in June.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Rickmers Update 2

Shows trend weakness today...still no cause of alarm..may be consolidating at 35 cents...tomorrow if breakdown less than 35 cents..then I am worried..Decision day tomorrow..Will be away for next month...I may just cut all positions and maintain 100% cash..Hard to react when cannot monitor.

Will surely dive after XD...may not worth it to hold for div....

Monday, April 27, 2009

Rickers Update

Should have waited for price to settle down at opening..rushed in to buy at major resistance level of 0.365. Anyway, I failed to see prices brought down by bad market sentiments and Swine flu. Market starts getting cautious.

Read some negative news on it today. I guess though the payout is attractive we have to note that this is abit of high risk holding this one for too long. My trend wave indicator did not show a downtrend despite the black candle ..but a slight edge up in reading. I may still be in the game.

Will hold and monitor tomorrow's price movement, If weak, I may cut loss at rebound. I guess holding this one till 11 May for XD may be an alternative

RICKERS CHART







No buy calls for long time. Using Andrew PitchFork, from several points of high and lows, Intersections at 36.5 cents shows that if broken could fly. Support well established at 32 cents.Good dividends, good earnings for quarter. I think this one got more upside.




Tp may go up to 49 cents. Short term maybe 41 cents.I am going to buy at open on Monday..hope don`t gap up too high thenMay not be right please set stop loss and analyse yourself to confirm. ..HUat




Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Wed Bits

Last night have been trying to convince myself to hold celest, which I failed. I punt for myself to sell at gap up. Luckily I ran for small profits as I see S-chips dying sentiments may drag celest down. Guessing from charts..Weekly still looks good for Celest. Will wait for good entry point like 14.5 - 15 cents to enter again for one last try. Still staying sidelines with 100% cash. I don`t think I will hold and will let go whatever opportunity this round.

Until my waves signals are clear. I am not trading

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Tues BIts

Rested a few days..and bought celestial at close today at 0.175. Though daily charts showing not much upside, but I do like the consolidation and resilience today closing up with a small white candle. The next bet would be the uptrending weekly charts which should not have peaked just this week.

This has always been a jinx counter for me. This time we will see how powerful weekly charts are to supercede daily charts readings. If a reversal is witnessed on celestial tomorrow, we should be looking beyonf 20 cents again for this one by Friday.

Generally, STI is downtrending..S-chips and most pennys are losing strength. Win or lose on celestial, would decide for me whether I should continue making intraday punts.

Thursday, April 16, 2009

No more Bits

I sold off SPH at day's high 2.91 cutting 1.3k of losses. Back to 100% cash. have slightly underestimated this rally but I have to reflect on a few selling mistakes.

1. At beginning of rally, hold and ride the trend. Pennys showing recovery confirms the rally and indicate good entry points for blue chips or mid caps.

2. Analyse STI direction, take note when market shows weakness, danger point usually at 3rd retracement.

3. Early signs of breakout in prices during early upmovements usually shows some accumulation mode at certain range of price..this breakup is confirm with weekly charts showing uptrending.

Rotational play was good but selling wrong timing cost me earning at least 20k less. One could ride this trend all the way until some leading counters retracement take place...usually we still have 1 day to react and sell.

Will not post Bits here now. But I may post some buy calls when time comes...Still waiting patiently..

Thursday, April 9, 2009

Thurs Bits

No action and sidelines on Wed. I paid up Eratat and Essence seems like they are waiting for a chance to break out, extremely bullish signal for rally to continue to next week. If thats the case STI should peak next week before retracing further to downtrend momentum.
Strategy for next week would be to clear my S-chips. I let go majority of my celestial for small kopi money leaving the 12 lots at loss, target to buy back celest at 10 - 10.5 cents next week.

Had to sell off celestial as punted and holded sports over the weekend. Essence and Eratat looks like breaking out and China sports seemed to break resistance to continue further upwards. Lets hope I am right. Target to clear all S-chips positions before punting anymore and hope SPH can chiong through for me to cut at minimum loss.

As essence pattern last 2 weeks confirmed a breakout. Eratat seemed to be following the same pattern, we shall confirm next week. With STI peaking out next week we should have another week of good run from Schips. Waves of prices are abit unclear now signifying reversal anytime.
Weekly charts still shows S-chips gonna have another week of good run.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Tues Bits

Was busy today..STI retraces 2.X% should have happened long ago. This should be normal as unusual for market to rally more than 3 weeks. Stayed sidelines and still waiting to clear the S-chips. I just got a feeling Essencce and Eratat should break out and I cannot possibly sell when STI is red. Decided to hold it and sell it at a good time. Not intending to buy more until other counters finish their retracements and start uptrending again.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Mon Bits

STI as mentioned last week tested 1850 again. My objective to clear my long positions proceeded smoothly exiting UOL and SAR. Expectedly prices rise after I cleared my positions for small profit. I was wrong not to hold my previous long positions since expecting 1850 STI since the start of rally 3 weeks ago. Point to note is that its good to ride the trend than to get in and out of various trades. But in a bear market rally, Its really hard not to run with profits.

I bought China Erata for quick punt, expecting it to breakout tomorrow and hope it does. Objective to clear celestial and China Essence by tomorrow to reduce risk positions and get back 100% cash as planned. S-chips did chiong for a while, I guess we may see some actions from them this few days.

Friday, April 3, 2009

Fri Bits

STI has touched 1800 this week. General outlook next week should still see STI testing 1850. Anyway not a good time to enter. Prices are mostly too high as I sold too early. Market chances are abundant, I don`t think i want to ride all the way to the peak and then wait for fall back. Still in my S-chips celestial and Essence. Waiting to exit SPH, UOL and SAR still as nothing to buy so I held on.

Hopefully, I will escape while I can from S-chips...holding them too long makes me feel uncomfortable. In any case, I will want 100% cash by next week.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Thurs Bits

Today Essence gap up to 12 cents!!..Heart Pain but I have to look forward..Breaking 11 cents is a good reversal signal, based on charts 20 cents should not be a problem next week. Most S-chips reversed slightly higher, tomorrow will be confirmation if the carry on with their up move. Initially, daily charts shows most downtrending, today trend was reversed to be in sync with weekly trends. New discovery: Weekly charts will lead changes to daily charts and supercede its reading..hmm..I will continue to monitor.

Today made a mistake rushing into RaffEdu when its already 40 cents. Although based on charts I should be safe but not worth the risk of my capital with the small returns for the day. Luckily I was able to sell it off for small profit covering yesterday brokerage loss. I still need to control my hasty entries this week.

Re-entered Essence at 12 cents, since reversal is clear, reached 14 cents today. I guess this should rally abit. Tp = 0.16 - 0.18

First time i see STI +100 exceeding, looks like 1800 was tested and next week should be going to 185X..I still don`t think STI will break 1900 and I am still expecting one more bear leg down.
Seems like next week is either reversal week in the middle of week or uptrend may still continue.

I guess next Mon and Tues should still go up as today rally has changed trends on daily charts to upwards. Can only confirm next week if we are going down.

Hope I can exit celestial, UOL tomorrow. Maybe I may sell SAR too. I will ride SPH to the max of this upmove..till the end. before I decide how much to cut loss.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Wed Bits

Luckily ChinaEssence recovered back to 11 cents for me to clear my mistake. Indeed a good reversal signal but I guess I better hold on and monitor further. I may re-enter at 9 cents though..Lost brokerage fees but definitely better than losing 1.5k.

Celestial still going downtrend, seems like S-chips don look too good this week..maybe will not chiong until next week after today charts.

Still holding on and watching. Will wait for good time next week to enter Synear and Banyan.