Tuesday, June 30, 2009

KepCorp Charts

Few points to note on Kep corp.Plot 5, 10, 20d EMA and see the crossover of 5d and 10d downwards of 20d EMA...signifies downtrend started.

In such senarios, prices will be hard to break resistance.Daily trend is upwards but should max out by today or tomorrow. 5d EMA moves up cutting 10d EMA signifies a buy but 20d EMA now acts as a resistance and with weekly charts downtrending..I see this as a trap...

The channel drawn is strong resistance coupled with lower highs and lower lows if today close lower than yesterdays close..reversal of kepcorp should have started.there are always 2 sides to everything..but in this case to me ..70% it should close lower below 7 dollarss this week..

Today large black candle acts more bearish look to Kepcorp.Based on the EMAs meeting close any further weakness in Kepcorp confirms it will downtrend and very high % that it cannot break further resistances.We are still at pivot point where tides may turn especially the 5d EMA moving up and cutting 10d EMA shows a buy signal. but based on my kk waves with today daily chart + weekly chart downtrending. 80% its price will go further down. And also with the 20 EMA still at the top of the 3 lines..downtrend is still in place.

Charts can be found here http://www.rmao.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=27. Donno why cannot post.

Friday, June 26, 2009

The strong reversal before dive...

Kepland was strong on 25/06. big white candle up like 12 cents with large volumes. I seen this senario 3rd time. twice in Kepland and once in SPH. Prices have been falling or trading in tight ranges and suddenly reversal formed which looks strong. After that day, price will still be trading at that range for another 1-2 days before it goes back to dormant stage...after that it will go down trend.

This is just an observation. Kepland and Capitaland made many happy on 25/06. Today, weakness showed in this counters instead of showing another white candle which was evident in the previous reversals instead we see a small black candle. or a star. Its for us to judge next week.

Synear I nearly bought today at open at 24 cents. No strength there too today. but its uptrending, nice weekly and daily charts and reversal supported by 2 days of white candles. Is this another trap. This is the period where TA don work as well due to the volatility. Prices and volumes do tell us more in such circumstances. One point to note.

1. Try not to buy immediately at open especially when buying up is so strong pushing the counter 1 -2 ticks higher before 10...They usually will fall back to the Opening price for us to catch up or it could dive down...This allows us more time to plan our entries better.

2. Stocks before rallying in S-chips usually will pull back 1-2 ticks down before flying..usually if its weak in day 1 pulling back to new low followed by a reversal fast in the 2nd day. Chances of it rallying is quite high. Of course still must based on TA abit on this S-chip before using this condition.

Opening Price Theory and Trading Timings

HAd been a while after those losses..Studied a real bit on price movements intraday and spotted a few pointers we can rely on.

1. Try not to trade between 0900 - 0930. Study if prices holds above OP after 0930 and sustainable till 1015 - 1030. If below OP..weakness on stock. If price holds well above OP throughout the day. Most likely it will lead..

2. Try not to buy between 1130 - 1230.

With that, I reverse abit of previous loss on Kepland. Shorted it at 2.35 and covered at 2.21 followed by long at 2.26 which was bad timing but I did not hastily cut loss this time but I held on seeing another upwave..luckily for me it did realised and I escaped at 2.29.

With the OP theory, sensed weakness in stocks. CapitalLand was trading below OP today and executed a quick short at 3.80, to see the price break down. Covered at 3.75. I should have held on but worried of the window dressing effect.

Coupled with timing in entries, monitoring of price movements and opening price on day when you need to execute a trade. + TA of the charts the day before. It could make our trades more timely.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Crashing in July...?

Stopped trading for a while and holding on to losing positions of Achiva and Transcu.
This time the sideway tradings looks similar to Feb before the big crash in March this year. Previously, Prices are shown uptrending daily and weekly charts are downtrending..Today marks a temporary wave up which may be the 2nd wave before the big wave down. In such cases where we see alot of reversal signals today at daily charts, prices should break down next week with more sideways trading. When such senario take place, TA would start to defies and market should start to crash down. Should I cut my long positions or should I hold on to them?

I am now looking for a few signs on a few counters:-

a. Down waves at reversal for Sembmarine and Keppel Land.
b. If prices are still higher than their previous high, uptrends continue.
c. If prices are still volatile and sideways but unable to break previous high, signs of a big correction is near.
d. Short at the next break of support.

Trading mistakes for review...

Made the same mistakes again on intraday trading. This is the last time I got to tell myself not to be so hasty into trades.
Mistakes commited.
1. Shorted Kepland at Day Low - 2.41
2. Covered at 2.40 and price went down further.
3. Looking at Kepland candles..there should be a day correction up. Long Kepland at 2.37.
4. Price drop further and I panic cut loss at 2.31. Eventually closes at 2.34 and went up to 2.60 today.

I lost to emotions and greed in earning a fast buck. My initial entries were correct but I made mistakes in timing. Anyway Intraday gambling like this are out of my style.
Luckily I lost on what I previously earned. I should have held on to my sembmarine where I covered with little profits and see the price fell to day low of 2.81 again. All these mistakes I have highlighted in the past 2 posts cost me much and is a good lesson learn to prevent myself from indulging in such gambles again.

What should have been done?

1. When highlighted that prices will go down further hold your shorts until support price is reaching and cover. Look for shorts at the next breakdown of support. ( I did not sell when support price was reached)

2. Never sell at Day low to cut loss and short at day lows. Price movement always moves up in one direction and will retrace or correct slightly after much price movements.

3. When the candles are getting shorter and shorter, we can see that the downward momentum is reducing and this can be supported by the lower volumes. Cover shorts at day close if possible.

Thursday, June 4, 2009

Reflection on Asc Reits Lost

Gave back 1/2 of my profits on Asc reits..Note the following,

1. Targetted prices will go down, setting cut loss too low should be 2 ticks higher from resistance.

2. Time strategy, buy / sell and hold. Still not cut out for intradays.

3. If charts goes my way, should hold it for a while to see movements. Steady minds.

Still fine tuning on my shorting skills. Asc reits looks like retracing but could go higher with weekly charts bullish. Cover on Friday. Shorted again today at 1.57

Holding Long on Achieva and Transcu. Paper Loss too much as long as both can be exited with minimum profits I will be able to keep my profits so far.

Holding Shorts for Sembmarine, looks like its falling is ending. Property counters like Capland, Keppel Land are also weakening. Could have shorted but got limited margins.

Strategy for June. Hold Long positions to positive territory and cover shor positions within 2 - 3 days. Shorting should be the key at this moment. Overall target met this month but I do not want to consider dividends as my gains. Pennys which lagged behind could still be in play.

Monday, June 1, 2009

Pennys move...

TOday bought achieva at 12.5 cents...for the 4 cents dividends...hoping it will be like Rickmers for a quick buck. Prices moves to 13 -13.5 cents range..
Bio-Treat moves up 1 cent too. Ascendas Reit doji star spotted, will sell at gap up tomorrow morning, though charts shows a break up of major resistance. I guess its safer to just contra it off and concentrate at others.

China Taisan looks good, 12.5 cents base and break up in volume. Bullish divergence spotted in weekly charts, may be a multi-bagger if patient.

Transcu closes up at 24 cents. 23 cents still supporting..hope its the move of a new uptrend for this one.

Market still bullish, happy point seemed to have reached whereby people are reluctant to sell, even I am not willing to selll too fast....Plan to load off in due time and monitor situation further.