Thursday, June 30, 2011

Last 2 trades for Jun 2011

PEC and Soundglobal.

Too lazy to update yesterday. BAsed on Tuesday closing, I entered 2 counters in Wednesday morning, first thing.

SoundGlobal.
Setup of continuous run possible - Friday and Monday to go shall monitor weakness to sell
Since it is rebounding and based on the new gravity line theory, prices should rebound.
High volume and price movement on Tues. Wed close, 5d ema cuts up to 10d ema. (2nd buy signal)
Target price 76 cents.

PEC
Rebound play
Volume increasing
5D EMA cutting up 10D EMA - 1st buy signal
For longer term play..will sell when signals come. Target i think is around 1.20

STI looks recovered. The above was bought based on their charts and betting on STI to recover up 3071. This is the point to convince me that things are going well. But if you look around stocks everynight and see charts turning on Tuesday <---meaning STI should recover?

Little did we expect STI to perform so strongly today also.. 2 big white candles with increasing volume. This should not be too fake.

SO far, execute as per signal, sell as per signal. NOBLE was sold too early should cut only when 1.89 support is breached..and not cutting when 1.90 is touched<---too conservative.

Now we shall see if I can sell base on signal. All the above 2 trades have planned stop loss price and target price.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Thoughts after selling

It seems that I sold off Noble too early. I could wait for rebound before clearing off position at day low. Anyway since I executed as planned, I am not that wrong too. What if Dow never recovered the -2XX that night? What if it was a straight away gap down breaking support? I rather be conservative.

Apart from the weakness I sense in Noble, I just see STI charts yesterday and sense that things have not turned around.
Yesterday I read and will translate in summary here. When stocks are going up and suddenly met with falling prices and gap downs (which was 2 weeks ago) and rebounded sharply in a V shape. This may be the last struggle of the index, we are meeting times of increased volatility, market feelings mixed. It may not be that bad just to keep in mind.

STI downtrending. STI must break 3070 with good volume for me to be convinced that we are going up or this may be the fast transition to a bear market? I am not sure though lets observe. Things are not looking positive imho.

At this point supports are still holding, if supports re- broken again which is within quite a short term frame, all hell break loose.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Position cleared. Market sentiments mixed

Samo sold.. break 22 cents to hold..break 21 cents to sell..when it touched 20.5..I sold for 21 cents..no doubt this stock got long term potential but apparently no volume to back it up after 10..I rather take profits as planned.

Cut loss on Noble. 1.91 breached. Although close at 1.91, do not like the mixed feeling in market. Rebound set up different, 2 days open high close weak. I rather stay aside and wait for clearer directions.

I execute above trades as planned, taking emotion out of context. No doubt I cannot bear to sell Samko even at 21 cents..but when it touches 20.5 , I know I had to let go. I planned to sell at 22 but if I sold it then and it break past the 61.8% fibo resistance..I will be losing much more than just 1 cents right? Although its 5 tick away from my target but no volume to support it.

Above are traded in time frame of 2 weeks, so have to sell it. We will see of this discipline can continue.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

21 - 22 Jun. Entered Noble

Did not update yesterday. Entered into Noble for rebound play. In summary:-

20th Jun shows small reversal
Vol not high
3 occurance of rebounds with 2 white candle..
entered on 2nd day 21 Jun at 1.93
Cut when 1.91 breached
Target 2.10

Rebound was validified on 21st Jun with higher volume entered in morning and trading above OP for whole day.

Today weakness surface gap up to 1.97 failed to breach first resistance. Would this be a false rebound? My thoughts later.

Holding Samko 21th Jun increasing Vol. close up by 1 tick<---churning...and interesting

22nd Jun Samko volume pierced to the sky Vol not as high as 10 days ago.
Tomorrow is critical, usually weakens after a high volume day.
This time different?
1st target to be 24 cents
2nd target 26 cents (previous high)
5,10,20d EMA cross over today..something big coming...?
I shall wait for a good selling point based on my new set of selling rules.

My thoughts

Today gap up on a strong dow. I expect majority to take profits especially after a downtrend or rebound a normal's man mentality is to win and run. I expected afternoon to be stronger but no avail.

I will continue to hold on Noble as even in a red day and weak performance from a open of 1.97 to close lower than yesterday close at 1.92. The key is Volume was not as great as 21st Jun (rebound day). If Noble break support I will cut straight away.

NOL, Capland - weak and fall with high volume.and close much lower than rebound close..dead

I see alot of stocks climbing back supports yesterday with higher volume. Abit of setbacks for average ones but still at support levels at slightly lesser volume. Weak ones which have no bottoms like NOL and Capland falling the most. There is still hope.

Will this be a fake rebound? My guess is no. Nobody dared to board the ship, tomorrow will be a runaway...

Monday, June 20, 2011

hmm..Am i wrong? I got 2 more days for Samko

Samko is still at support 0.19..very nicely climbing back every day at close. I still got T+4 and +5. Based on rules if there is no increase for the next 10 days, I have to let go..which falls on my T+5 and we will do just that or when it closes below 19 cents.

One note if this fails. Extremely high volume on 8th Jun much more compared to other days.
never break resistance..shows it will start downtrending. (We shall note this)

Capland is still weak..more downside>?

Noble and CMA looks like turning and not too bad

STE and NOL will drop more?

Above just for verifications and look back.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

I Bought Samko today

I was at the zoo and I entered my first trade since I came back to trading, Samko.
In summary, the main point why I bought is because:-0

1. Uptrending and strong.
2. Within channel, One week up and One week down
3. Most importantly is what I have been analysing Vol price relation. Looking at the weekly charts and daily charts. The high volume days are all big white candles.
Week 1 - price up vol up
Week 2 - Price down vol down
Week 3 - Price up vol up
Week 4 - Price down vol down
Put it simply, Price up Vol up <----A is buying
Price down Vol down <-----A is releasing out 40% to push down price still have 60%
and this go on alternately in weeks.
if A still has 60% and has been accumulating for weeks, would it let the stock break out of range?
Not unless he will do a breakout the next week and we shall see.

Am I thinking too much? haha Target 23 cents.

When Stocks movements defies all TA

True enough, stocks are breaking down supports. Although a lot shows rebound signals but recent weak signs like gap down and recent support break supercede the rebound. I call this the time where Price movement defying all TA.

It also gives a signal that prices are finding a new bottom in the coming month. As what I recalled, this happened too before March 2009 lowest point during Feb.

Looking positively, we may find bottom in July and recovering back on track on August for our last Bull run?..

Lets see.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Today Thoughts

Being off market for so long and not entering a trade till now keeps me thinking. Am I getting too worried of failing on my first entry?
I had a thought today, if I feel that this is the time for entry. With the proper planning of stop loss, I should never had worry. Maybe I should just go ahead and make my first buy. Maybe I am still verifying my entry.

Capland

Shows selling have been limited. Rebound seems to be soon. Always felt that it is preparing to trap another group here. Safer to wait for clearer signals. Possible to fight back to 3.20?

FI is increasing to 0 = selling pressure lesser
MACD wave uptrending
Positive Divergence detected
Oversold and weak, no near supports - risky

GAR

Broke down already. Bearish for this stock

Someone mentioned to me Genting and Olam today..Just briefly look at it for records

Genting

Obvious twin peaks there price broke down neck line 27 Apr
Positive Divergence for MACD
Gap down - weakness
Weekly downtrending - price to go lower
May break below 1.87
Support to hold 1.86-1.87 (Hard to hold)
Resistance 2.21
I see 3 peaks failing to break 2.21..high prob prices will go down further

OLAM

Gap down stock
Weekly and daily Downtrending
Current Support 2.51
2.80 previous support broken is bearish
Looking at Fibo Resistance at 50%
support at 0% most likely will still fall

Monday, June 13, 2011

YZJ and Crapland

YZJ - 13 Jun

support = 1.52
support breached.
tail form shows going down further.
Downtrending
Bears win

CapLand

No support
tail forming
bulls fight back at close
rebound?
downtrend
No point to fight against weak downtrending counters with no supports

There should be rebound but what is the upside? no point risking.
Maybe because property sector taking a hit so showing now?

I am still looking for my comeback trade...

Friday, June 3, 2011

I am Back..

Holding since I left. Recently close 80% of what I held on. Holding penny stocks are the worst decisions I made. The other 20% just collected dividends but lost in capital.
I am sort of breakeven and I am still trying to find back my feel. Lets see if it will work this time.

I looked at 3 stocks. YZJ, Midas, A-reits. Just for thoughts, I am really out of touch.

YZJ close 1.58 2nd Jun.
MACD Divergence.
At / below lower BB
RSI weak.
increasing volume
Likely reversal. - buy at 1.56 cut loss at 1.53 - 1.52 possible gain of less than 10cents within 2 weeks?
Support 1.54 Resistance 1.67
Buy at breakup of 1.67 with volume.
Not attractive for me to buy now.

A-reits - downtrending..

Midas.

Support 0.66 Vol low
No clear uptrend in MACD
possible reversal
Price went below support.
overall weak..may see it go lower.

From this few stocks, sense that overall market sentiments will be range trading
Market going down, prices are beginning to break down..